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Undaunted Chest Unlock/Drop Frequency

Does anyone know if the monster pieces in the undaunted chests change drop frequency based on how many you unlock in a period of time?

For example would I get better or worse drops if I unlocked three in a row vs 1 at a time?  Would the same piece tend to drop from the chest if I unlock it two times in a row as opposed to opening one, then doing another pledge and come back to open the second?

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  1. #1


    Moderator1308 Posts

    Loots from the chests are independent. Assuming the inherent probability of the drops was set equal by ZOS to begin with, over a long term, with a sufficient sample size, the probability for each set should approach parity. Of course, this is a key assumption; there may be a nefarious scheme to lower the standard probability for the stronger sets to arbitrarily prolong the process of grinding.

    Back on PTS 2.5.0 and 2.5.1, Asayre and I logged 1k samples for gold and silver chests, the results were recorded chronologically (including ones that did not yield a shoulder piece - silver chests back then was only ~50%), While there were discrepancies between the sets, the order in which the sets were looted appear pseudo-random (the loot chance of monster set from the silver chests on the PTS was taken into account). The mechanics had since changed, to be based on a set-list of dungeons assigned by an Undaunted quest giver, rather than based on gold/silver pledges, and that all keys guarantee a shoulder piece. 

    Though the order of loot confirmed the assertion that the loots are independent, the distribution of the pieces were not found to be equal. Specifically, there was a bias against the Molag Kena, Valkyn and Lord Warden sets. In terms of weight, it was skewed towards medium armour. In terms of traits, there was a bias against the divine trait. In the original spreadsheet, a 95% CI was constructed with 3% error, where the results appeared to be non-random (this is no longer made available online, as the number of sets and chest mechanics have been changed, but it signified the possibility that the standard probabilities implemented for each set, weight and trait were unequal to begin with). ESO forum user code65536 also logged about 400 keys (but not chronologically) with similar result independently; but even after adding his data with respect to drop rates, there was still strong evidence that suggested not all sets, weights and traits have equal drop rates.

    e pluribus unum


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