Hi, I’m @elffromspace, Guildmaster of Elder Scrolls Exchange, the leading guild of a large network of trade & mercantile guilds with the goal of advancing the economy of The Elder Scrolls Online by enabling an open and social community for all types of players to sell their merchandise. I have been involved in ESO’s trade system for 2 years and am also a member of the Council of Nirn, a volunteer group of community leaders who perform extensive testing to provide organized feedback to the developers.
The upcoming Dark Brotherhood DLC is bringing with it a lot of changes that promise to have a major impact on the economy in The Elder Scrolls Online. If you’re looking to turn a profit or just prepare your own stockpiles, here’s a brief look at some of the biggest changes we speculate are to come.
Materials typically spike each update as players make new gear to adjust to the changes. This will primarily impact top level crafting materials and upgrade materials (especially gold ones). Due to the scope of changes in this update, we may see a higher spike than normal.
Players who have 160 champion points but have VR1-VR15 characters will suddenly be able to upgrade the gear on all of those alts to max level, so there will be a larger number of gear upgrades happening in a brief period of time. In contrast, the value of VR1-15 materials is likely to drop since players will only need this gear on their first character and then never again.
Poison crafting will be added to the game with Dark Brotherhood. Poisons will be crafted using the existing alchemy profession and many of the same ingredients the profession already uses. Anticipation of this upcoming change has already drastically increased the value of reagents because players are hoarding them in the expectation of prices going up even further after the release. Players wanting fast cash now can get it by farming reagents and selling them for 2-5 times the average prices you see listed for them in addons like Master Merchant.
Rune farming for enchanting is changing significantly. Each node currently has a 1/3 chance of dropping one of the 3 types of runes. After the change, each node will give guaranteed essence rune and an aspect rune with an additional 1/3 chance of giving a potency rune. Potency runes will also be available from vendors in the upcoming patch.
Lower level runes will be very affordable ranging from 30-111G, but max level runes (Repora/Itade) will cost 2,508G. Anyone with stockpiles of lower level runes may wish to liquidate stocks as most of them can be expected to deflate to the new vendor values. Repora and Itade may or may not go up in value depending on how the farming changes work out once finalized. This process has been reworked a few times on the PTS already, so it’s hard to be certain where it’s going to land on launch day. Rune values in general are likely to decrease due to growing supply.
Hakeijo runes will be available with Telvar stones for 5,000TV. Due to the nature of this currency, it’s unclear exactly how much impact this new availability will have on the runes’ pricing.
With the removal of veteran ranks, all VR1-10 consumables including foods, drinks, potions, and soulgems are all likely to be devalued in a similar fashion to crafting materials below VR16. Players looking for great deals after the update may be able to find these consumables for very low prices. This could be a great strategy for players solo farming who don’t need the maximum boost.
PVP gear currently available in the VR14 RNG boxes will also be available in CP160 boxes for 20,000AP. This will make these sets viable again and may improve the value of AP. The CP160 versions of the more popular gear sets like Morag Tong are likely to be in high demand since the random drops mean it can be very difficult to get the desired pieces from the boxes directly.
All weapon and armor traits are changing in the upcoming patch. Relative gains and losses in power between them can be expected to cause corresponding changes in the values of gear with these traits as demand shifts from one meta to the next. These trait changes are likely to continue to see adjustments, so it may be good to keep spares of hard to get gear even if they have currently undesirable traits.
In the Dark Brotherhood patch, sharpened is currently the most popular weapon trait, so nirnhoned weapons and potent nirncrux may decline in value. Nirnhoned armor is being buffed, which may drive up values of fortified nirncrux.
Many of the currently unpopular traits are currently being overhauled to provide much more utility to the players, e.g. the exploration trait will be changing to grant a bonus to XP and CP gain instead of increasing exploration XP gained. As a result, items featuring these overhauled, previously worthless traits should see a price increase with the update.
There will be new motif pages available in both thieves and assassin styles. These will drop as 14 different pages and will be available in delves and world bosses in both the TG and DB DLC zones. These motifs will start out being VERY valuable for players who are willing to spend more to get the new styles early on and sell their crafting skills. They will deflate rapidly as the supplies catch up with demand. Players who put in the time to farm these motif pages early will be able to turn a large profit in the first few days of the DLC’s launch.